Think Anew, Act Anew

observations and opinion

What Romney has to take, what Obama has to keep

In 2008, Barack Obama won 353 Electoral College votes (EVs).   He can lose 83 of them, and still pull out a win with 270 EVs.

Put another way, McCain won 185 EVs for the GOP in 2008.   Romney needs all of them, plus another 65.

So what are their chances?

  • States Obama will likely lose:    North Carolina (15) and Indiana (11) are gone.  That takes him to 327.
  • States Obama may lose:   At present, Florida (29) and Virginia (13) are clearly at risk.   That puts Obama at 285.
  • From there, he can lose Colorado (9) and New Hampshire (4) and still win with 271 EVs.

Here’s what we look for on election night:

  1. If Obama wins Florida and Virginia early, that’s the ballgame.  There’s almost no way Romney can make up the ground , even by taking  the rest of the swing states.
  2. If Romney pulls off a shocking upset in one early state, say Pennsylvania, that’s probably the ballgame – he wins.
  3. If Florida goes for Obama, then the only way Romney can win is if he takes North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and either Ohio or Wisconsin + Iowa.  
  4. In all probability, the decision will rest exactly where the experts think it will:  Ohio.

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This entry was posted on October 30, 2012 by in The U.S.A..
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