What Romney has to take, what Obama has to keep
In 2008, Barack Obama won 353 Electoral College votes (EVs). He can lose 83 of them, and still pull out a win with 270 EVs.
Put another way, McCain won 185 EVs for the GOP in 2008. Romney needs all of them, plus another 65.
So what are their chances?
- States Obama will likely lose: North Carolina (15) and Indiana (11) are gone. That takes him to 327.
- States Obama may lose: At present, Florida (29) and Virginia (13) are clearly at risk. That puts Obama at 285.
- From there, he can lose Colorado (9) and New Hampshire (4) and still win with 271 EVs.
Here’s what we look for on election night:
- If Obama wins Florida and Virginia early, that’s the ballgame. There’s almost no way Romney can make up the ground , even by taking the rest of the swing states.
- If Romney pulls off a shocking upset in one early state, say Pennsylvania, that’s probably the ballgame – he wins.
- If Florida goes for Obama, then the only way Romney can win is if he takes North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and either Ohio or Wisconsin + Iowa.
- In all probability, the decision will rest exactly where the experts think it will: Ohio.